​

​​​​​Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula

The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula combines Average Score (60%), Highest Score plus Lowest Score (20%), and Winning Percentage. (20%) to come up with a team's Power Rating for use in comparing teams both in the same league in ways other than just by Win-Loss Record.

Besides comparing teams in the same league during the same season, our Power Rating is handy for comparing teams from previous seasons (same-sized leagues only). Simply plug the stats from the older team into the formula and you can get an idea of who had the best team of all time in any particular league.

​

I WAS TOLD NO MATH TODAY...

Prepare for quantitative analytical formulas that should have no place in fantasy football, but why not? Quantitative analytical methods are used to answer research questions, describe data sources, variables, and samples, which is exactly what we are trying to do when we ask, who is the strongest team in a given season or even of all time.

​

The USAFL's adjusted power index is identical to the methods developed by Oberon and OIL, but an additional formula is added into the mix. Given nearly two decades of fluctuating league size and games played, we had to take it a step further. After using the Oberon formula, the power rank is divided by the number of games played that season and then multiplied by 14, the league standard of regular-season games played. This provides a baseline across years where some seasons had 10 regular-season games, while others had up to 14 games.

​

Once this is completed we then add the OIL formula which calculates how each team compares to the rest of the league for that season. So, what is measured is not raw data that fluctuates by season but, instead, how much better or worse a team is than the average team for that season. But first, the baseline raw power rating needs to be calculated.

​

1. The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula as described on their website:

​

(avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2]/10 = Oberon Power Rating

​

In English:
​
#1. Multiply the team's average score by six. The average score is the very basic stat to judge a team's prowess.

#2. Add the team's highest score to their lowest score (Deviation), and multiply the result by two. Over and above the average score, the Deviation gives more importance to a team's highest-scoring game, while also punishing a team a little more for their lowest score.

#3. Take the owner's winning percentage and multiply by 200, then multiply that by two. This portion of the Formula more than anything rewards and punishes for all the little intangibles associated with coaching a fantasy team. For instance, an owner that continues to win despite a less-than-impressive lineup is rewarded over and above their lagging average score. On the other hand, an owner that loses because he starts players on their bye week, or leaves injured players in their lineup, suffers twice . . . from points not scored by missing players and for the resulting losses.

#4. divide the total by 10.

The result is the Power Rating . . . or, if you like, the Potential Rating, since it actually is meant to judge the potential score a team might be expected to score on any given weekend compared to its average score. Remember, as the season progresses, a team's average score changes more and more slowly as the number of games included increases. The Power Rating formula takes not only the average score into account, but also recent extreme high or low scores, and winning or losing trends. Obviously, you will need a few weeks of data before a viable PR can be arrived at. We don't start reporting Power Ratings until after Week 3 games.

Definition of Terms:
Average score - Total of a team's points scored divided by the number of games played.
Deviation - Take the team's highest score and add to it the team's lowest score.
Winning Percentage. - Divide the team's number of wins by the number of games played.

​​

​

#1. (avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2]/10 = Oberon Power Rating

​​

​

#2. From the Oberon Power Rating to the Adjusted OIL OPR

So now we tip our cap to the OIL and use their formula which adds "one wrinkle to better compare teams from different seasons. For example, a 2018 team might have the same record as a 2010 team but more points scored. On its face, the 2018 team is superior. But, if the league-wide scoring in 2018 is significantly more than it was in 2010, the 2010 team may have been more dominant. That is what we aim to discover using the adjusted OIL Power Rating. The formula for the adjusted OPR is:"

​

Team 1 Oberon Power Rating/Average League Raw Power Rating = FINAL USAFL Power Index

​

To determine the adjusted OPR for Team One (T1):
 

1. First, calculate the raw PR for each team; then

2. Divide T1's raw OPR by the average of all teams' raw OPR.

This results in a number that is a multiple of the average power rating for that season. The absolute baseline score is 1.0, meaning that team's power rating is exactly the average power rating across the league. Anything below 1.0 is a below-average team; anything higher is above-average. What this provides is context, as it is difficult to compare a 2006 team to a 2018 team. The offenses have exploded, and every team is scoring more points and achieving higher power ratings on average just as a result of more fantasy points being scored in general.

​

In action, it works like this in the OIL:

"In 2012, Lucky Enuf finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs. But was his team bad or just unlucky? His raw OPR was 172.07, while the average for 2012 was 155.32. Applying the adjusted OPR formula (172.07/155.32) shows that Lucky Enuf was 1.108 times better than the average 2012 team. An adjusted OPR of 1.108 indicates that Lucky Enuf was one of the stronger teams in the league that season but fell victim to a tough schedule (for comparison, the 2012 champion's adjusted OPR was just a tick higher at 1.133)."

​

"Similarly, in 2013, the DARC NARCS finished with a losing record and missed the playoffs. In 2015, they won 11 games and finished second in the NFC. But, compared to the average team of each respective season, the 2013 DARC NARCS  that finished 6-7 were a better team (1.116) than the 2015 version that went 11-5 (1.113). This was even while having a winning percentage 20+ points worse than they boated in 2015 (the winning percentage is weighted at 20% of the OPR raw score)."